These advanced stats provide some rebuttal to this common observation about the Islanders, so let's dive right into the analysis. In other words, the Islanders are on the upswing under coach Patrick Roy.
Visually, their 3-2 win at Toronto, which came from an 0-2-1 deficit on Monday night after an eight-day All-Star break, showed Roy was making progress. It was a game they kept saying and a strong template for how they should play. , which is very likely and would be a solid push to the playoffs again. We'll see how they follow up with yet another measuring stick game Thursday night against the Lightning at UBS Arena.
The five games Roy played off the bench for the Islanders were, in order, the playoff appearance against the Stars, the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas, the emotional comeback game in Montreal, the defending Eastern Conference champion Panthers, and the team's excellent offensive ability. It was a game against the Maple Leafs.
“We still have some things to clean up,” defenseman Scott Mayfield said. “The Maple Leafs hit that slot area and flew around the zone. We have to close right away and finish that move. When we're moving bodies, we have to finish the move a little bit more. Once you finish that movement, you can break out and repeat the play. It was a good game, I think we're still coming and still learning, and it was good to watch.”
The Islanders were tough on the puck. As both teams wrestled after the final buzzer, they physically outscored the Maple Leafs 40-25 before Cal Clutterbuck allowed a late cross-check on John Tavares. After Tavares tied the score on a power play just over two minutes into the game, Pierre Envall hung on to score the winning goal at 17:58 of the third period.
They are getting healthier. Defensemen Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech returned from injury. Fourth-line center Casey Cizikas (long-term injured reserve/lower body) has started skating for the team.
“I want to start strong after the holidays,” said Purok, who missed 24 games with a lower-body injury, while Peleku missed just one game due to an illegal ball to the head. “We know we have to put up some points to make the playoffs. Tonight was the first step.”
Before Monday's game, Roy cited team management statistics that showed the Islanders were first in the NHL in limiting opponents inside the offensive zone over the past four games.
Public analysis sites offer a somewhat different take on Monday's performance.
NaturalStatTrick.com has the Islanders' Corsi at 49.15% at 5-on-5 and the Maple Leafs' 50.85%. The site says he gave the Maple Leafs a 15-11 edge at 5-on-5 on dangerous chances.
MoneyPuck.com gives the Islanders a 14.27% chance of making the playoffs, but based on 1,000 simulations, the Maple Leafs have a 65.1% chance of winning that game and the Maple Leafs' expected goals against the Islanders. reported that it was 4.34. '2.63.
However, goaltender Ilya Sorokin's 2.34 goals saved against the Maple Leafs, exceeding expectations, is a big reason for hope going forward.
So, there is still work to be done. However, it is not difficult to see an upward trend.
