According to the latest forecasts, Sirium AscendGlobal air traffic is expected to grow 14% year-on-year in 2024, according to an aviation consulting firm. This growth rate is expected to be approximately 6% higher than 2019 numbers.
However, while global production capacity has already exceeded 2019 numbers, annual growth is expected to be only 12%. This is because, despite the continuous increase in the number of passenger aircraft and utilization rates worldwide, new aircraft deliveries and production face significant challenges to establish a positive trend.
Photo: London Heathrow Airport, Terminal 5A. photograph. Presented by BAA Airports Limited.
The Cirium report suggests that this trend could lead to so-called capacity shortages for airlines. This situation is expected to continue into the next decade, primarily due to constraints on new aircraft deliveries from major manufacturers Airbus and Boeing.
It is important to note that this capacity shortage poses a significant challenge for airlines seeking to meet growing aviation demand. This situation could also lead to higher ticket prices and fewer options for travelers in the coming years.
“The trajectory of demand remains steadily upward,” said Rob Morris, global head of the consulting firm. He said at Cirium Ascend's 2024 Market Outlook webinar last week that aircraft supply continues to increase for now.
However, headwinds from aircraft manufacturing issues are expected to result in significant delays in deliveries for an extended period of time. “The supply is perfect. The problem is shipping,” Morris said.
Morris said both Airbus and Boeing continue to experience delivery difficulties to varying degrees. As a result, the number of new aircraft will remain lower than previously predicted.
Because there are not enough bolts
Much of the slowdown in single-aisle aircraft deliveries can be attributed to the backlog of orders for Boeing's 737 MAX family. As of December 2023, Boeing had ordered more than 6,200 aircraft, but only 1,400 of them had been delivered.
Two fatal crashes delayed deliveries for nearly 20 months, but the plane returned to service in 2020, and Boeing announced plans to ramp up production. However, before these increases were initiated, several quality control issues were uncovered throughout the aircraft manufacturer's manufacturing process.
Photo: The first Boeing 737 MAX 7.Provided by Boeing Commercial Aircraft
Most recently, an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 made headlines when its door plug exploded, causing the aircraft to be grounded while the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) conducted an inspection.
Preliminary findings from a subsequent National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation revealed that the aircraft was delivered with four plug bolts missing.
The 737 MAX 9 has been cleared to return to service, but the inspection revealed a pattern of manufacturing oversights that regulators and Boeing are now seeking to address. Instead of ramping up production on the 737 assembly line, the FAA limited Boeing's production to 38 planes per month until the process met regulatory approval.
Photo: Boeing's Renton factory, the first 737 MAX.Provided by Boeing Commercial Aircraft
“To be clear, this does not mean a return to business as usual for Boeing,” FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said in a statement. “Until the quality control issues identified during this process are resolved, we will not agree to Boeing's request to expand production or approve additional 737 Max production lines.”
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic
European manufacturer Airbus has taken the lead in the single-aisle race with more than 10,000 orders for its popular A320neo series aircraft, of which nearly 3,200 have been delivered.
But that doesn't mean Boeing's rivals aren't struggling with manufacturing. Airbus started 2023 with a disappointing decline in deliveries due to supply chain deficiencies, but this year started on a positive note with deliveries increasing by 50% in January.
However, according to reports this month, Reuters, Airbus recently warned airline customers to expect more delivery delays across its product line due to continued supply chain issues. Availability of engines and other critical components remains difficult for aircraft manufacturers.
Photo: provided by easyJet
Morris said ongoing issues with the Pratt & Whitney power plant used on the A320, A220 and some Embraer aircraft are causing “many airlines to reduce fleet planning and capacity.” “We have planning challenges that could last at least three years and possibly longer.”
Nevertheless, Airbus met its 2023 production target, delivering a total of 735 aircraft, and Cirium Ascend predicts that number will likely exceed 820 in 2024.
