Grant Wellwood says a new generation of AI tools will further empower the “highest paid person in the room” and offers tips on how to differentiate between superficial knowledge and deep understanding.
As the third wave of artificial intelligence (AI) unfolds, there are real concerns about how this machine learning-powered AI will impact a variety of professions, including process engineering-based consulting. Masu. Despite its inherent complexity, our field is not immune to the changes brought about by AI, especially in relation to soft aspects such as client interaction.
The adage “The project is the people” is deeply ingrained in our profession. In the field of process consulting, we meet a wide variety of people. Our new client engagement typically begins with an enthusiastic liaison from the client's team, often referred to as “mobilizers.” This mobilizer is someone who has a genuine interest in driving change and recognizes potential blind spots that our expertise can address. Once the project goals are set and the contract is signed, a kickoff meeting is held, bringing together all members of the organization.
fake expert
In a world of constant change, one thing remains constant. That is the existence of “fake experts.” They exude confidence, generously do away with names and buzzwords, and give off an aura of expertise about a phenomenon so prevalent that it deserves its own name. Dunning-Kruger (DK) effect.
Dunning-Kruger effect
Occurs when a person with limited knowledge or skills in a particular field overestimates his or her abilities because he or she does not have enough knowledge or skills to recognize his or her limitations, leading to a false sense of confidence cognitive bias.
Although we are often told that we are less skilled and unaware of it, we see this bias on the left side of the DK curve. (Figure 1). This bias is further compounded by the fact that the people involved are often the highest paid in the room and their influence carries considerable weight, hence the name “HIPPO'' (Highest Paid Person's Opinion). It often gets worse.
This archetype, which we call “arrogant,” is often HIPPO due to overconfidence, and is capable of inspiring and motivating others to pursue even seemingly unrealistic goals. It's a superpower you don't have.
Figure 1: Stylized version of the DK curve
find a solution
The journey to your consulting goals consists of two distinct phases. The first is the discovery and planning phase, which identifies root causes, develops optimal solutions, and charts a path to implementation. and the execution phase.
Hubris' overconfidence can be an advantage in the second stage, when determination and resilience are important to overcome internal resistance to change. In this context, not knowing all the obstacles and complications can be an advantage, and ignorance can sometimes be bliss. Hubris often excels as a delivery hero during executions. However, at the initial stage he can be an obstacle.
As consultants, our primary role in the first stage is to identify the root cause and frame possible interventions and alternative futures to help the client arrive at the best solution. Unlike mobilizers, hubris are often skeptical of the existence of any problem, perplexed as to why outside help is needed, and questioning the value of our involvement.
Many of the problems we are asked to address are rooted in complex systems with complex interdependencies. Changing one element often intertwines balance and reinforcement in the loop, creating unintended consequences. Hubris tends to view the world linearly, simplifying complexity into overly simple cause-and-effect scenarios. It is our understanding of these subtle loops that underpins the insights we bring to the table. Our deliverables typically consist of recommendations that support informed decision-making, similar to predictions based on past knowledge.
