The past year has seen significant changes in the digital marketing space. The Justice Department's antitrust case against Google finally goes to trial, Apple's iOS 17 introduces privacy-focused features that upend the tracking status quo, and the EU slaps millions of dollars in fines. Opposition to Criteo over GDPR violations, streaming TV overtaking linear TV in viewership, MediaMath collapse, Amazon's impending start of advertising on Prime Video, and finally, Disney and Spectrum's innovative new plans for linear TV programming Providers and multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) work together to agree on a model and content delivery method. And it's only October!
As we approach the end of the year, here are my predictions for what marketers can expect to see in 2024.
1. More digital TV inventory and better measurement
Linear TV viewership will continue to decline as consumers rapidly migrate to subscription-based, free, ad-supported streaming TV services. The glut of connected TV ad inventory flooding the market is still in its infancy, with Amazon adding ads to its Prime Video service and more consumers adopting ad-supported streaming subscriptions to save money. It doesn't work.
The endless supply of connected and streaming TV ad inventory puts more emphasis on measurement and attribution, but achieving ad impressions and completions requires more than just that. Not enough. With marketing budgets tightening across myriad sectors, marketers are poised to demand high return on ad spend through measurable results in a brand-safe environment, or publishers and streamers will be forced to increase streaming viewership. You will find that it does not lead to meaningful profits. The collapse of CPM and further industry consolidation will follow.
2. First-party data will ultimately reign supreme, but cookies will be saved
We've been hearing about the impending obsolescence of cookies for years, but 2024 will mark the end of cookie-based advertising strategies. Chrome, Safari, and Firefox have limited ability to use third-party cookies, and as more countries and local governments implement privacy-centric regulations (notably the EU's GDPR and California's CCPA), The need for party data is increasing. stake.
For advertisers who have invested in developing subscription products, newsletters, and tools to collect consumer data and build sophisticated content taxonomies to deliver meaningful and contextual offerings, 2024 will bring It will be a year in which your investment will be greatly rewarded. And for those who don't, expect a year of scrambling and reacting to the train that has been hurtling down the industry's tracks for so long.
But as privacy becomes more demanded by consumers and regulated by governments, first-party data poses unique challenges to digital marketing. The days of the wild west of clandestinely leveraging consumer data are long gone.
3. Strengthening privacy regulations and enforcement measures
If 2023 has taught us anything, it's that GDPR was just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to governments' focus on protecting consumer privacy. As is often the case, the European Union has taken the lead, but regulation extends beyond the continent.
California may have been the first state in the United States to adopt a law similar to the California Consumer Privacy Act, but by 2023, Colorado, Virginia, Connecticut, Utah, Iowa, Indiana, and Tennessee Similar laws have been passed in the states of Montana, Texas, Delaware and Oregon. Some are already in force. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, requiring federal laws and regulations to harmonize standards across the United States to provide a set of rules for businesses and marketers to operate. There is a possibility.
Unenforceable legal and regulatory frameworks lack substance. The EU is once again leading the way in demonstrating that there are consequences for breaking rules, as demonstrated by the record €40 million fine against French ad tech giant Creet. In 2024, fines are expected to increase further, more companies will invest in privacy compliance tools and audits, and marketing measurement and reliance on first-party data will become more complex.
4. New self-service advertising offerings to counter Meta/Google monopoly
Meta and Google are certainly not the be-all and end-all of digital marketing platforms, but given their combined market share of nearly 60%, most marketers might think otherwise. But what gave Google and Meta market share wasn't their best-in-class product offerings, but the democratization of advertising tools and low barriers to entry, even for small startups and local companies. Gone are the days when advertising required a six-figure budget or more. Once 2024 takes effect, we can expect platforms like Amazon, Microsoft, TikTok, Hulu, and Disney to embrace and strengthen the self-service, anyone-can-advertise-here philosophy.
Microsoft's advertising partnership with Netflix and their ability to survive the long game is strong enough that 2024 will see Microsoft's advertising It means this could be a year of business growth. All that is missing is a well-designed user experience and market awareness.
5. Explosion of commercial and retail media
First-party data may be king, but the kingdom is commerce and retail media. Publishers are taking notice as retailers like Target, Kroger, Walmart, and Amazon continue to move into retail media to monetize their data and diversify their revenue streams. From social platforms to connected TV and more, we can expect a strong focus on Commerce's marketing.
2023 saw the big launch of TikTok Shops, but 2024 could be the year that Roku, Peacock, and similar streaming services take shoppable TV mainstream. The streaming industry may begin to offer more than just impressions to drive increased revenue streams and establish itself as a must-have media placement.
As we look to 2024, one thing is certain. When it comes to digital media and advertising, change is the only constant. Organizations and brands that are not prepared to change with the times will forever be left behind.
Andrew Becks is co-founder and chief strategy and innovation officer of 301 Digital Media, a full-service media agency.
