Summer has long been the busiest time of the year in Europe's popular cities. But since international travel surged again in 2022, airlines have followed a clear trend. Travelers are increasingly flocking across the Atlantic during what has traditionally been called “off-peak” times.
The past four years of travel have been marked by dramatic ups and downs. COVID-19 disrupted travel in 2020, “revenge travel” crowds overwhelmed airlines in 2022, and Transportation Security Administration checkpoints set an all-time record in 2023.
But while some domestically focused airlines (such as low-cost carriers) have lamented seat supply exceeding domestic travel demand in recent months, some of the largest U.S. carriers have We want to ride the wave of demand. The Atlantic will continue well beyond 2024…not just June, July, and August.
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“I think we've reached a new standard, and our new standard is different than 2019,” Delta President Glenn Hauenstein told analysts during the company's January earnings call. ” he said.
Specifically, Howe said the “new normal” includes Europe's peak season well beyond the sweatiest summer months, when tourists line up at the Eiffel Tower and stand shoulder to shoulder at the Trevi Fountain. Enstein said.
“It used to be [peak of summer] “We were just in June, July, August,” Hauenstein explained, adding, “We've seen the season for leisure travel to Europe get longer, and in fact now it's March through October. It's doing quite well,” he said.
The proliferation of airline “off-peak” seats
The numbers are pretty grim.
According to data, the US “big three” airlines (Delta, United and American Airlines) delivered a combined 22% more seats to Europe in March and April than in the same months in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic. It is said that the flight will be operated on. aviation analysis company Cirum; This is despite the fact that these three airlines are offering slightly fewer domestic seats compared to March and April 2019.
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United Airlines' data is perhaps the most shocking. The number of seats to Europe increased by more than a quarter in March and April compared to the same period five years ago. This is part of the company's focus on international aviation, where it is dramatically expanding its Pacific network while awaiting historic orders for wide-body, long-range jets. Only.
Mainly in southern Europe
Where do tourists fly to during the non-summer months?
Whether you want to catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights in Scandinavia or visit a Christmas market in Germany, there are plenty of great European destinations to visit in winter.
But unsurprisingly, airlines experience the heaviest unseasonable demand in Europe's warmer southern regions.
“Destinations in Spain and Italy have become year-round destinations rather than seasonal destinations,” United Airlines Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocera said during United's Jan. 23 earnings call. “This is new and we are responding to it.” .
This trend has undoubtedly contributed to a record year for Spanish tourism, with 2023 set to see a record number of 85.1 million visitors, the country's National Institute of Statistics revealed on Friday.
It also helped set United and its U.S. competitors on course for 2024.
Capitalizing on these demand forces in Southern Europe, United plans to offer a whopping 113% more seats to Italy and Spain in February, March and April compared to the same months in 2019, according to data from Cirium. That's what it means. That's because this airline (not to mention Delta and American Airlines) will continue to operate at a much more cautious pace overall in 2024 than the airlines with flights to all of Europe (not to mention Delta and American Airlines). This is despite the fact that it is growing. last Year.
Nocera said United has moved some of its off-peak flights away from Nordic hubs such as London and Germany to increase seats to these destinations during non-summer months.
Hauenstein also noted that this apparent “extension of the international season” tends to cause Delta travelers to flock to southern Europe earlier in the year rather than to colder destinations.
What does this mean for consumers?
What is the reason behind the continued demand for travel to Europe almost all year round? Considering that international travel resumed in earnest about two years ago, this is due to pent-up demand during the pandemic. It seems almost far-fetched to suggest that the forces of are still at play.
Perhaps it's because more and more travelers are finding ways to use points, miles, or travel rewards credit cards to pay for their travels. After all, many airlines reported record numbers of frequent flyer members and co-branded card signups in 2023.
John Grant, an aviation analyst at industry data firm OAG, said the continued strength of the dollar was not a factor.
“The increase in demand, or at least the perceived demand, is largely due to the strength of the US dollar against the euro, which has made Europe undervalued.”[er] It’s a place to visit,” Grant said.
This could make everything from eating out to public transportation to tourist attractions more affordable than they were a few years ago… at least once you're there. For some travelers, repeat trips to Europe may be a more viable option.
Will transatlantic flights get cheaper in 2024?
It's worth looking at what all this means for airfares in 2024.
U.S. and European airlines have increased their transatlantic schedules in recent years, leading many analysts to question recently whether the market is nearing saturation. After all, increased competition usually leads to lower prices, as we've seen with U.S. domestic airfares.
However, so far, no significant decline in transatlantic freight rates has occurred. Booking app Hopper predicted in its 2024 Travel Outlook report that the average “value” fare to Europe will be around $717 in 2024. This is an increase of about 5% from last year. This is much more modest than the year-on-year increases travelers found in 2023 and 2022, but given that Hopper points to year-over-year price declines in some regions (at least for consumers ) is surprisingly not new. Other notable international destinations include Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, and even Australia and New Zealand.
Ultimately, Grant said, sustained demand, fairly stable year-round supply from 2023 and airlines continuing to grapple with rising fuel, maintenance and labor costs will result in lower fares to Europe. is expected to remain at a relatively stable level compared to last year.
How to find the cheapest flights to Europe
To that end, conventional wisdom still applies. Please secure your flight ticket as soon as possible.
While the non-summer months are certainly getting busier, the in-season periods of high demand are still far more ripe for discounts.
As Hauenstein said on Delta's recent earnings call, “Of course the shoulders are still not as strong as they were at their summer peak.”
So if you're looking for a bargain, it's probably more reliable to search for flights in March or October, for example, than in June or July.
“If you travel during the shoulder seasons, be flexible with your routes and travel dates, and book early, you may be able to get what looks like a good deal in the summer,” Grant said. 2019. ”
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