On February 2, 2024, the U.S. announced that it would be targeting Iranian military and Iranian-backed forces at seven military sites in Iraq and Syria, following a Jan. 28 drone attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. soldiers and injured 34 others. carried out more than 125 retaliatory attacks against paramilitary groups. .
The retaliatory strikes hit 85 targets, including command and control operations centers, intelligence centers and munitions supply chain facilities, U.S. military officials said, adding to the Middle East conflict that President Joe Biden has sought to avoid escalating. This is the latest chapter.
On January 30, Biden announced his decision to respond to the drone strikes that killed soldiers, saying, “I don't think we need a broader war in the Middle East.” The Iraqi Islamic Resistance Movement, a paramilitary group backed by Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran denied any direct involvement.
The US retaliatory attack came hours after the remains of a US soldier were returned to the US.
The Conversation spoke with Gregory Trevorton, former chairman of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, to understand the strategic thinking behind this retaliatory attack.
What factors may have influenced the United States' decision to launch retaliatory strikes and when to launch them?
As for timing, the president may have wanted to bring the bodies of military personnel killed in Jordan home to give everyone time to think. In recent days, it has been confirmed that Iran and Iraq are putting pressure on some proxies to reduce their activities. In one case, one of the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq agreed last week to cease operations.Iran also said it does not want a broader war with the US
The time it took for Mr. Biden to authorize the strike also gave Iranian soldiers and others time to move out of harm's way if they wanted to leave the military base.
More strategically, Biden had already promised something earlier this week and was under all kinds of political pressure to do something. But he still appears to be trying to avoid further escalation of the conflict.
Biden, for example, avoided a direct attack on Iranian territory, despite pressure from some Republicans to do so.
Iran says it wants to avoid war with the United States. However, the proxy group just attacked a US military base. Does that imply some kind of internal friction?
From our experience with agency organizations in our country, we know that they have their own interests and that there are also interests that we share. Sometimes, U.S.-backed proxy groups act solely in their own interests in ways we don't like. In that sense, these agency relationships are always complex.
Even if Iran wants to avoid further escalation with the United States, many of these groups wouldn't mind a broader conflict if their goals are more terminal, such as the destruction of Israel. My guess is that it's deaf.
What will these retaliatory strikes accomplish?
I think they accomplished something important and fulfilling the Biden administration's promise to respond to the drone strikes that killed American soldiers. The reaction itself has been well-appreciated so far, so a dramatic escalation of the conflict is unlikely, but it may come as a surprise.
Overall, this is a calibrated measure and clearly does not completely reduce the military capabilities of these groups. But it should still have a fairly significant impact and weaken military power, at least to some extent.
What else is most important to understand about these retaliatory attacks?
The broader context here is that the US offensive makes achieving some level of ceasefire in Gaza all the more important. At the very least, these proxies would no longer have the basis for Israel's attack on Gaza to justify what they are doing.
It seems to me that we have yet to see any real signs from the Israelis that this war has reached its final stage. We wonder if the Israeli government is considering some way to reform the Palestinian Authority, or perhaps a coalition of Arab countries, perhaps the US and European countries, to govern Gaza once the war is over. I'm guessing. But we haven't seen any signs of that publicly.
So as long as the war continues in Gaza, and as long as Palestinians are being killed, these proxies think this is the only way to respond to them.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization that provides facts and analysis to help you understand our complex world.
Author: Gregory F. Trevorton USC Dornsaif College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
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Gregory F. Trevorton does not work for, consult, own stock in, or receive funding from any company or organization that might benefit from this article, and does not have any academic He has not disclosed any relevant affiliations other than his appointment.
