The United States could soon go from pledging to help defend Ukraine against Russia “for as long as necessary” to pledging aid to Russia for as long as it benefits President Donald Trump's presidential campaign. We cannot fathom the seriousness of this act, which has cost lives, undermined American credibility from Taiwan to the Middle East, and guaranteed future instability in the European market, which accounts for 2.6 million American jobs. . But it might well happen.
If that happens and the House blocks the $60 billion Ukraine aid package that the Senate passed this week after months of delays, it would be European Ukraine's only hope of getting the help it needs to defend itself. Dew. This is a terrible position for any country to be in, and how to step up should be a top priority for defense officials at the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday.
For those who argue that there is no need to waste money because the Ukrainians will lose anyway, this is a prophecy that is already beginning to self-fulfill. The U.S. last withdrew funds from Ukraine in October last year, and has been missing about $2 billion worth of weapons every month since then, according to the latest information from the Ukraine Aid Tracker kept by Germany's Kiel Institute. It means doing.
Its influence is also visible on the battlefield. With the supply of air defense missiles in short supply, the percentage of Russian cruise and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian cities has risen from about 10% to 50%. On the front line, Russia is on the offensive again and will need about three times as many troops as Ukraine to break through. It is approaching it in terms of firepower, as Ukrainian gunners are forced to ration artillery ammunition. The number of Russian casualties per meter of advance remains appalling, but the numbers are increasing. None of this was necessary.
The last time the U.S. administration withdrew from European conflicts was in 1991, as the former Yugoslavia began to disintegrate. Former Secretary of State James Baker said at the time, “We're not keeping dogs in this fight,” speculating that Europe would be able to manage its own security in its own backyard. It was Luxembourg's foreign minister who declared that Europe's time had come, and that's all you need to know about how it turned out.
Relying on Europe to deal with the security threat posed by Russia may sound foolish, but it is not impossible, but it requires an urgency, a pragmatism that the EU has so far failed to demonstrate. , a combination of strategic decision-making will be required. The Kiel Institute found that before Congress intervened last year, Europe had already promised twice as much aid as the United States. However, only about half were sent. Unless funding arrives, Kiel estimates that deliveries will need to double this year to fill the gap left by the United States.
I asked Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine, to explain the financial aspects. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Kyiv will need $41.8 billion in budget support this year, of which the government expects $37 billion to come from external aid. Of that, $8.5 billion was to come from U.S. aid currently frozen in Washington, but Nikolaychuk said the shortfall would be even larger because the war is existential for Ukraine. . Therefore, the government will need to raise money from other parts of the budget to procure the missing weapons and ammunition that make up a larger portion of the $60 billion U.S. plan.
Earlier this month, the European Union finally overcame Hungary's objections to aiding Ukraine and adopted a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package. This money will be spread over four years but brought forward, so the amount available in 2024 is expected to be 18 billion euros.
“War is expensive, especially when attacked by a global superpower,” Nikolaychuk said.
But the problem here is not just financial. This is because Europe does not produce the same weapons as the United States. Think ammunition for the Patriot and NASAMS missile defense systems. As things stand, European countries have not fulfilled their promise to deliver one million 155mm shells by March. Fulfilling America's commitments will also be nearly impossible.
So what should I do? Securing a windfall from around $200 billion or more of frozen Russian assets could help. However, Nikolaychuk is in favor of completely confiscating the funds, which he says will take years and should be directed to the massive reconstruction Ukraine will need after the war ends. To tell.
On the military side, Europe seems to be gradually waking up to the fact that it must be able to defend itself. European NATO members increased defense spending by 8.3% last year. NATO estimates that in 2024, European member states as a group will achieve a target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense spending for the first time since it was set. But to succeed, Europe will need to actually do what it has been saying for decades and integrate its defense industry and procurement.
