- China and Russia are now considered less of a threat to people in the West than they were a year ago, according to a new study that points to growing concerns about non-traditional risks.
- Mass migration due to war and climate change and the rise of Islamic extremism currently rank among the top perceived risks among G7 countries.
- A majority of Western respondents also said they see China and the Global South becoming more powerful over the next decade, while Western countries are likely to stagnate or decline.
China and Russia are considered less of a threat to people in the West than they were a year ago, as public attention shifts to non-traditional risks such as mass immigration and Islamic extremism, according to a new study. It is being
According to the results of the Munich Security Index 2024, public awareness of traditional hard security risks is still higher than it was three years ago, but has declined since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Shown.
The findings will come as world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference later this week to discuss what organizers call a “downward trend in world politics characterized by increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.” This shows that there is a disconnect between national sentiment and political policy.
At the top of the agenda are the ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, NATO expansion, and Donald Trump's possible return to the White House.
However, public opinion is broadly agreed on medium-term economic and geopolitical risks, with a majority of Western respondents believing that China and other powers in the Global South will only become more powerful over the next decade. , said Western countries were more likely to do so. To stagnate or decline.
The poll of 12,000 people from the G7 countries plus Brazil, India, China and South Africa found that few Western respondents believed their country would be safer and wealthier in 10 years. In contrast, most people in emerging countries thought they would be better off, both economically and politically.
Russia and China risks are on the decline
Russia ranked as the biggest threat to G7 countries last year, according to a study conducted between October and November 2023, but much of the perceived risk has since faded.
This year too, only citizens of the UK and Japan considered Moscow to be the biggest risk, while Germany and Italy recorded a significant reduction in concerns. This included waning concerns about the risks of nuclear conflict and disruption of energy supplies.
Five of the G7 countries, excluding Canada and Japan, also view China more favorably this year than last year. Remarkably, however, Chinese respondents see all countries except Russia and Belarus as more threatening than before. It is also the only country to list the United States as a threat.
However, awareness of non-traditional risks is growing in all countries, with people around the world expressing concern about environmental threats, the risks of mass migration as a result of war and climate change, and organized crime. .Environmental issues rank among the top three concerns in every country except the United States
The perceived threat of Islamic extremism also showed a notable increase, although the report's authors noted that sentiment was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America, likely a result of the Israel-Hamas war. did.
Meanwhile, cybersecurity issues rank among the top risks in China and the United States, as both countries tighten regulations on each other in a race for technological superiority.
The index was accompanied by a report titled “Lose-Lose?'', which pointed to the continuing shift away from global cooperation towards transactional and protectionist policies.
“As more states define their success in comparison to other countries, a vicious cycle of relative gain thinking, loss of prosperity, and increased geopolitical tensions threatens to spread. , it has already been deployed in many policy areas and involves different regions,'' the report said.
It added that this year's super election cycle could further exacerbate the risks of “democratic backsliding, increasing social polarization and the rise of right-wing populism” and further undermine international cooperation.
Furthermore, populist forces are amplifying the sentiment that some actors are gaining at the expense of others, arguing that “extreme forms of liberalism will worsen who wins and who loses in economic globalization.'' “I'm letting them do it,” he added.
The report suggested that Trump's re-election as US president could “bring an end to reliable cooperation between democracies.” In fact, the Republican presidential candidate said Saturday that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO allies if it does not meet its spending commitments.
