Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Council (MSC), said in the council's new security report that the world in 2024 will be characterized by “increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.” It will be characterized by a downward trend in world politics characterized by gender. It took place on Monday ahead of a high-profile rally in Bavaria this week.
From February 16th to 18th, military officials, security experts and senior politicians from around the world will meet again in Munich, southern Germany, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also expected to attend.
The Munich Security Index study, released ahead of last year's conference, rated Russia's war against Ukraine as the greatest security threat, particularly among G7 countries.This includes seven of the world's developed countries.
However, the new MSC survey of 12,000 people from Brazil, India, China, South Africa and other G7 countries found that “migration due to war and climate change'' outweighed the prospects for global warming. considered even more important. Aggressive Russia. Those surveyed in October and November 2023 appear to have become accustomed to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The MSC also asked Ukrainians about “acceptable conditions for a ceasefire” and 92% called for a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, including Crimea. Only 12% thought it would be acceptable if Crimea remained annexed by Russia. More than two-thirds want Ukraine to quickly join the EU and NATO.
Western countries lose influence in competition with China
A new MSC report titled “Loss or Lose?'' argues that everyone is losing out in the current global situation.
Research shows that perceptions of the risk of military conflict between China and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific are rapidly increasing. Fear of an increasingly confident China has led to a particularly strong jump in Japan, followed by India, the United States, Germany and France.
In the G7 countries (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Japan, Canada, and the US), “the majority of the population”[…] They believe their countries will be less safe and less wealthy in 10 years,” Heusgen wrote. According to the survey's analysis, people in the G7 countries expect China and countries in the Global South to increase their power and influence, and for China to benefit at the expense of others.
Globalization is in reverse gear
Overall, dissatisfaction with the global economic situation is growing, the report continues: “Despite significant achievements in the post-Cold War era, key stakeholders…
Western countries, powerful autocracies, and countries of the so-called Global South are all dissatisfied with the status quo and their share of the proverbial pie. ”
Globalization as a whole has shifted into reverse gear. It is clear that the need for competition and security has increased significantly in today's world. Globally, declining capital flows, particularly to China, and increasing geopolitical competition are obscuring the idea that market-driven globalization leads to a fair distribution of benefits. The report says states are prioritizing “resiliency and safety over efficiency.”
The dramatic political changes of the past few years are reflected in what the report calls “macroeconomic realities.” Western capital flows are being directed from China to other partners. According to the Munich Security Report, “trade flows are also showing tentative signs of restructuring along geopolitical lines”, giving a very pessimistic picture about global networks as a whole. is drawing.
Nevertheless, Europe, especially Germany, stands out as an exception. “German companies also continue to invest heavily in China, contradicting Berlin's ambitions to reduce its exposure to China,” the report said. “Germany's direct investment in China remained at almost the highest level ever in the first half of 2023.”
Meanwhile, the German government continues to pursue a policy of “risk avoidance” with China, or in other words, a policy of reducing economic dependence. This started with the coronavirus pandemic, which disrupted the supply chain between Germany and China. The move away from years of energy dependence on Russia has given momentum to this policy. However, it seems that this has not yet been reflected in concrete numbers.
Sahel region: violence increases after each coup
Russia's growing military influence in the Sahel also influenced the MSC's analysis. The expulsion of French troops by Niger's military junta in 2023 is just one example of France's waning interest in the region, while Russia appears to be trying to separate the Sahel countries from Europe and the United States.
Once again, the authors of this year's Munich Security Report see only losers. “With each coup since 2020 resulting in greater levels of violence, the people of the region are losing opportunities for peace and democratic progress.”
The report says that growing distrust around the world is also reflected in the perceived dangers of cyber-attacks and the negative impact of the use of artificial intelligence (AI).
“Technological advances, once a mutually beneficial driver of globalization, have become a competition for geopolitical advantage,” the analysis argues. This is supported by findings from the Munich Security Index, which found that US respondents rated this threat particularly high, followed by India.
Overall, it appears that people are becoming increasingly fearful of disinformation campaigns in the digital world.
This article was originally written in German.
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